Ohio’s 9th Congressional District Is a Masterclass in Everything Happening in American Politics Right Now

By Radell — Host, Purple Political Breakdown | Alive Podcast Network

There’s a race brewing in northwest Ohio that should be on the radar of every political strategist, policy professional, and engaged citizen in the country. It’s not getting the national cable news treatment yet, but it will. And when it does, the people who understood the dynamics early will be the ones who saw 2026 coming.

Ohio’s 9th Congressional District is, at this moment, the single most instructive House race of the 2026 cycle. Not because any one candidate is extraordinary, but because the race is a compressed version of every force reshaping American politics: partisan redistricting, the tension between populism and traditional conservatism, trade economics, voting rights, institutional corruption, and the durability of incumbency in a realigned electorate.

I just released a deep-dive episode on the Purple Political Breakdown podcast covering all of it. Here’s the strategic overview.

The Redistricting Play

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) has held this seat since 1982 — the longest-serving woman in congressional history. She’s won 22 consecutive terms, including a razor-thin victory in 2024 by less than 3,000 votes. Then Ohio’s Redistricting Commission redrew the map in October 2025. The district, centered on Toledo and the Lake Erie coast, was extended south into conservative rural territory. Trump’s margin in the district jumped from roughly +7 to +10.5 points.

The NRCC has highlighted that no member of Congress now represents a district more favorable to the opposing party than the new OH-9. Sabato’s Crystal Ball moved the rating from “Toss-up” to “Leans Republican.” The Cook Political Report still has it at “Toss Up.” The gap between those two assessments tells you how much uncertainty remains.

Why Kaptur Has Survived — And Why This Time Is Different

Kaptur’s political durability is not an accident. She has built a brand as a protectionist, pro-labor, blue-collar Democrat that predates the Trump realignment by decades. She voted against NAFTA, CAFTA, the WTO, and free trade agreements with multiple countries. She supports tariffs against currency manipulation. On trade, her record is arguably to the right of many Republicans — and that overlap with populist economics is a key reason she’s held a Trump-leaning seat for so long.

She pairs that with strong environmental credentials (95% League of Conservation Voters), pro-labor voting (100% United Food and Commercial Workers), and a seat on the Appropriations Committee that has delivered significant federal funding to northwest Ohio.

But the 2026 math is different. The new district boundaries add voters who don’t know her. At 79, she faces questions about longevity. And five Republican challengers are competing in a May 5 primary that will be a fascinating test of what the GOP base actually wants.

The GOP Primary: A Microcosm of the Republican Party’s Identity Crisis

The five Republican candidates each represent a different theory of the party’s future:

Derek Merrin represents the rematch strategy — the candidate who nearly won last time, backed by Trump’s 2024 endorsement, with the fundraising lead. His liability is the baggage from voting against expelling a convicted corrupt Speaker and his ties to the MAGA speaker fight that split the Ohio House.

Madison Sheahan represents the Trump administration credential play — a 28-year-old former ICE Deputy Director whose entire platform is immigration enforcement. The question for voters: is that enough for a district worried about jobs and healthcare?

Anthony Campbell represents the policy-depth outsider strategy. His “ABC Plan” is the most detailed platform in the field, and several positions break from GOP orthodoxy: supporting renewables alongside fossil fuels, strengthening rather than cutting Medicaid and Medicare, and providing tariff relief. His healthcare background (VP of Data Science at NOMS Healthcare) gives him genuine subject matter credibility. His challenge is fundraising and name recognition.

Alea Nadeem represents the veteran-conservative lane — strong fundraising, military credentials, and near-MAGA positioning without full alignment.

Josh Williams represents the culture-war-first approach — anti-DEI, anti-trans legislation, and alignment with the national MAGA social agenda. But his policy pages list priorities without offering solutions, which is a strategic gap in a general election against an Appropriations Committee incumbent who can point to tangible results.

The Broader Ohio Context

This race sits within an Ohio political environment that is uniquely complex right now:

The FirstEnergy bribery trial in Akron is the largest corruption case in state history, with a former CEO on trial and political implications reaching to the U.S. Senate. The SAVE America Act — which passed the House and would require proof of citizenship to register to vote — would disproportionately impact the kinds of voters who could determine Ohio’s competitive races. The Ohio House just banned ranked-choice voting preemptively, and an internal GOP power struggle in the state treasurer’s race served as a proxy battle between JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy for influence over the party’s post-Trump future.

All of these threads connect. Ohio isn’t just a battleground state — it’s the laboratory where we can see what’s coming for the rest of the country.

The Strategic Takeaway

For political professionals, OH-9 offers a real-time test of several core questions: Can incumbency overcome a double-digit partisan disadvantage? Can policy depth beat name recognition in a primary? Does a single-issue campaign (immigration) work in a district with diverse economic concerns? And does the GOP base reward MAGA culture-war positioning or pragmatic problem-solving?

We’ll find out on May 5.

I covered all of this — and much more, including the candidate-by-candidate breakdown, the FirstEnergy trial, the SAVE America Act’s impact on 2026, and Ohio’s legislative developments — on the latest episode of Purple Political Breakdown.

Listen here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/who-can-beat-marcy-kaptur-ohios-9th-congressional-district/id1626987640?i=1000752097979

Purple Political Breakdown is a nonpartisan political podcast on the Alive Podcast Network focused on political solutions without political bias.

Sources

• https://signalohio.org/state-approval-sets-off-race-to-repeal-ohio-thc-law/

• https://signalohio.org/signature-drive-accelerates-to-block-ohio-hemp-law-ohio-supreme-court-loosens-rule-on-judges-political-speech/

• https://signalcleveland.org/firstenergy-house-bill-6-bribery-public-corruption-trial-arrives-fresh-evidence/

• https://ballotpedia.org/Ohio%27s_9th_Congressional_District_election,_2026

• https://ontheissues.org/OH/Marcy_Kaptur.htm

• https://www.campbell4.us/solutions

• https://www.notus.org/2026-election/ohio-marcy-kaptur-democratic-reelection-redistricting

• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2026-election/ice-no-2-steps-launch-run-battleground-house-district-ohio-rcna254218

• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/house-passes-save-america-act-trump-backed-election-bill-rcna258614

• https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/trumps-election-bill-save-america-act-50-senate-votes-democrats-block-rcna259351

• https://19thnews.org/2026/02/house-passes-save-america-act-married-women-vote/

• https://bipartisanpolicy.org/article/five-things-to-know-about-the-save-act/

• https://www.votebeat.org/2026/02/16/save-america-act-passes-house-proof-of-citizenship-register-vote-photo-id/

• https://campaignlegal.org/update/what-you-need-know-about-save-act

• https://www.lwv.org/blog/save-act-headed-senate-push-restrict-voting-access

• https://spectrumnews1.com/oh/columbus/news/2026/02/12/ohio-fundraising-landsman-kaptur

• https://www.limaohio.com/top-stories/2026/01/04/kaptur-defiant-as-redistricting-adds-putnam-county-i-will-fight-on/

• https://www.13abc.com/2025/10/30/kapturs-district-moves-further-right-new-congressional-map-compromise/

• https://sanduskyregister.com/news/701096/local-republican-running-against-kaptur/

• https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/7296

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections_in_Ohio

• https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Safeguard_American_Voter_Eligibility_Act