Feb. 26, 2026
The 2028 Democratic Primary Is Already Underway — And Most People Aren't Paying Attention
The next presidential election is over two years away, but the groundwork is already being laid. If you're not watching what's happening right now with Gavin Newsom, JD Vance, and the shifting political landscape around issues like tariffs, trans rights, and immigration, you're going to be caught off guard when 2028 arrives.
On the latest episode of Purple Political Breakdown, I sat down with panelist Elijah for a Socratic Breakdown covering the political stories that matter most right now — and more importantly, what they signal about where American politics is headed.
The Newsom Play Is Obvious — And It's Working
Gavin Newsom hasn't officially declared anything, but his actions speak louder than any announcement. He's the loudest Democratic voice taking direct shots at the Trump administration. He's strategically shifting his messaging on trans issues — not abandoning trans people, but repositioning the conversation away from identity politics and toward broader appeal. He's making himself relatable in public appearances, most recently at an event with the Atlanta mayor where he brought up his personal struggles with dyslexia.
That last point became a manufactured controversy when MAGA commentators tried to frame it as racist. It wasn't. The Atlanta mayor himself said it wasn't. The full context makes it obvious. But it tells you something important about the 2028 landscape: any viable Democratic candidate is going to face relentless, bad-faith attacks from the right-wing media machine. The question isn't whether the attacks will come — it's whether the candidate can withstand them.
From my research, most of the criticisms circulating about Newsom are narrative-driven rather than grounded in his actual policy record. That doesn't mean he's above criticism — every politician deserves scrutiny. But the difference between legitimate policy critique and propaganda is something voters need to get better at distinguishing.
The JD Vance Problem Is Bigger Than People Realize
On the Republican side, JD Vance is the presumptive frontrunner for 2028 or whenever Trump exits the picture. Most people I talk to — even politically engaged ones — don't know much about him beyond "Trump's VP" and the Hillbilly Elegy connection. That's a problem, because the network behind Vance is far more concerning than Vance himself.
Vance's trajectory tells you everything. He called Trump "America's Hitler." Then Trump's son took an interest in his book. Then wealthy backers — Peter Thiel chief among them — positioned Vance as Trump's VP pick. Trump didn't know who Vance was before the elites introduced them.
This matters because the people who elevated Vance — Thiel, Curtis Yarvin, Marc Andreessen — have a specific vision for America. Yarvin openly advocates for an oligarchical, technocratic restructuring of American governance. DOGE was heavily inspired by his ideas. When you trace these connections, you start to see a coherent strategy that goes far beyond Trump's chaotic approach to governance.
A man who called the president Hitler and then became his vice president because wealthy donors told him to is not someone who operates on principle. He operates on incentive. And the people providing those incentives have an agenda that most Americans would find deeply troubling if they understood it.
Tariffs Won't Bring Back What's Already Gone
The tariff conversation has become one of the most frustrating in American politics because it's built on nostalgia for an economy that no longer exists and can't be resurrected.
Trump's global tariff approach — implemented via executive action without congressional oversight — has been criticized by virtually every mainstream economist. Tariffs are a legitimate tool for national security and targeted trade negotiation. They are not a macroeconomic growth strategy.
The manufacturing narrative is particularly misleading. The Biden administration actually had strong manufacturing job numbers and historically low unemployment. Those jobs existed. People still complained. The fundamental issue isn't job availability — it's that the American workforce has evolved beyond wanting those roles, and the wages required to make them attractive in America make us uncompetitive against countries with larger labor pools and lower wage expectations.
Here's what most people aren't factoring in: by the time any tariff-driven manufacturing infrastructure gets built — realistically a 10-year process — AI and robotics will have made most of those human jobs obsolete. We're fighting to bring back jobs that won't exist by the time we win them back.
The smarter investment is in the sectors where America actually leads: AI, technology, and high-value services. Instead of regressing to a manufacturing economy, we should be building the education and workforce development infrastructure to prepare Americans for the economy that's actually coming.
The Left's Purity Problem
One of the most frustrating dynamics in current politics is the left's tendency toward ideological purity at the expense of practical outcomes.
When Hasan Piker — someone with enormous influence over young progressive audiences — says he'd vote third party rather than choose between JD Vance and Gavin Newsom, that's not principled. It's privileged. It's the luxury of someone who won't personally bear the worst consequences of a MAGA administration.
Obama articulated this well in a recent interview: people on the left need to accept that a large portion of this country won't agree with them on everything, and compromise is necessary to get anything done. Newsom's shift on trans messaging is exactly this kind of strategic compromise — maintaining supportive policy while adjusting rhetoric to appeal to a broader electorate.
If your single issue — whether it's trans rights, climate, or anything else — is enough to make you sit out an election against MAGA, I think you've lost perspective on what's actually at stake. The opponent isn't a normal Republican. The opponent is a movement that's actively degrading democratic institutions, and the response needs to be proportional to that threat.
What This All Means
The 2028 race is going to be defined by three dynamics: whether the Democratic Party can unify around a candidate without tearing itself apart over purity tests, whether voters understand the true nature of the network behind JD Vance, and whether the American public can distinguish between economic nostalgia and economic reality.
These aren't abstract political questions. They have real consequences for immigration policy, economic stability, healthcare access, international relations, and democratic governance itself.
The conversation is already happening. The question is whether you're paying attention.
Radell Lewis is the host and producer of Purple Political Breakdown on the Alive Podcast Network — delivering political solutions without political bias. Former Ballotpedia Fellow and STAR Voting Outreach Coordinator.
Podcast Host
Navigating the vast amount of bouncing around the political spectrum my entire life I have finally figured something important out. It doesn't matter. I've been religious, been in the military, went to a liberal school and all in all none of the political biases matter. We shouldn't let toxic discourse cloud our judgement and find a solution through logic and conversation. In pursuit of this mission I created this podcast to focus on these important conversations.
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