POLITICAL SOLUTIONS WITHOUT POLITICAL BIAS

The Promise Ledger: What He Said, What Happened (Living Document)

Donald Trump's second-term promises scored against the record. Compiled by Purple Political Breakdown. Updated September 8, 2026.

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A president is judged against what he promised, not against what his critics feared. This page takes his words at face value and checks them against government data, court rulings, and his own agencies' reports.

Five verdicts are used. Kept: he did what he said. Partly kept: real action, short of the promise. Broken: he said one thing and the record shows another. Failed: he tried and was stopped, usually by a court. Open: too early or too contested to call.

The score as of September 8, 2026: 5 kept, 4 partly kept, 12 broken, 1 failed, 2 open.

The ledger at a glance

  • Kept: pardon January 6 defendants; extend the 2017 tax cuts; save TikTok; cut illegal border crossings; release the JFK files.
  • Partly kept: no tax on tips and Social Security; end the Gaza war; make NATO allies pay more; deport a million people a year.
  • Broken: no new wars; end the Ukraine war in 24 hours; bring prices down on day one; tariffs paid by foreign countries; no cuts to Medicaid; bring health costs way down; gas under $2; mortgage rates near 3 percent; cut housing costs in half; bring back manufacturing; balance the budget and cut $2 trillion with DOGE; release the Epstein files.
  • Failed: end birthright citizenship.
  • Open: deport "the worst of the worst" first; growth "like nobody's ever grown before."

PART 1. PROMISES KEPT

1.1 Pardon the January 6 defendants

  • The promise: repeatedly through 2024, pardons for "hostages" prosecuted over January 6.
  • What happened: on day one he granted clemency to roughly 1,600 defendants, including people convicted of seditious conspiracy and of assaulting police.
  • Verdict: Kept. Whether it should have been is a different question, answered on the corruption page.

1.2 Extend the 2017 tax cuts

  • The promise: make the expiring individual tax cuts permanent.
  • What happened: signed into law in July 2025 as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act.
  • Verdict: Kept. The cost, and what was cut to pay for it, appears in Part 3.

1.3 Save TikTok

  • The promise: keep the app available in the United States.
  • What happened: a new venture with United States investors was announced in January 2026 after repeated enforcement delays.
  • Verdict: Kept. PolitiFact rates it the same.

1.4 Cut illegal border crossings

  • The promise: "seal the border."
  • What happened: southwest border encounters fell to multi-decade lows in 2025 and have stayed low. RE-VERIFY the current CBP monthly figure before publishing a number.
  • Verdict: Kept. This is the administration's strongest single result and the page says so plainly.

1.5 Release the JFK files

  • The promise: declassify the remaining Kennedy assassination records.
  • What happened: released in March 2025. RE-VERIFY completeness claims.
  • Verdict: Kept.

PART 2. PROMISES PARTLY KEPT

2.1 No tax on tips, overtime, or Social Security

  • The promise: eliminate federal tax on tips, on overtime, and on Social Security benefits.
  • What happened: the 2025 law created deductions for tips and overtime and a temporary senior deduction that does not cover all recipients and expires after 2028. PolitiFact rates the tips and Social Security promises Compromise.
  • Verdict: Partly kept.

2.2 End the war in Gaza

  • The promise: end the war and bring the hostages home.
  • What happened: the October 2025 ceasefire and hostage releases were widely credited to this administration. The postwar framework, including a "Board of Peace" with reported billion-dollar seats and an invitation to Vladimir Putin, drew criticism, and no majority in any country Pew surveyed approves of his Gaza policy.
  • Verdict: Partly kept. The ceasefire was a real achievement and this page credits it.

2.3 Make NATO allies pay more

  • The promise: allies spend far more on their own defense.
  • What happened: allies committed to sharply higher spending targets at the 2025 Hague summit and the European Union launched a 150 billion euro defense financing program. RE-VERIFY the pledge figure. The same period produced the Greenland crisis and the lowest allied trust in the United States on record; see the harm page, Part 6.
  • Verdict: Partly kept. Allies are spending more. They are also planning around American unreliability.

2.4 Deport a million people a year

  • The promise: "the largest deportation operation in American history."
  • What happened: roughly 150,000 removals in the first six months of 2025 against a one million annual goal, alongside record detention and rising arrests of people with no criminal record. RE-VERIFY the fiscal 2026 total.
  • Verdict: Partly kept on scale. See Open, 5.1, on who was deported.

PART 3. PROMISES BROKEN

3.1 "No new wars"

  • The promise: inaugural address, January 20, 2025: "We will measure our success not only by the battles we win, but also by the wars that we end, and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into." "My proudest legacy will be that of a peacemaker and unifier." "Our power will stop all wars." Campaign, November 2024 victory speech: "I'm not going to start wars, I'm going to stop wars." RE-VERIFY WORDING of the victory speech line.
  • What happened: United States strikes on Iran in June 2025 with no statutory authority cited; a joint United States and Israeli war on Iran from February 28, 2026 that killed Iran's supreme leader, 18 United States service members, and more than 1,700 documented Iranian civilians, closed the Strait of Hormuz, and is still producing strikes after the June ceasefire; 68 lethal boat strikes killing at least 227 people; the capture of Venezuela's president in a raid that left about 100 dead; Christmas Day strikes in Nigeria. In a June 2026 NBC interview he said he never promised no new wars. CNN's fact check listed the times he did.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: none of these is a declared war, Iran was attacking shipping, cartels are combatants, and presidents of both parties have used force this way. The words he chose in January 2025 did not say "declared."

3.2 End the Ukraine war in 24 hours

  • The promise: dozens of times in 2023 and 2024, he would end the war "in 24 hours," before taking office.
  • What happened: he later said he was "being a little bit sarcastic." A 28-point United States plan in November 2025 and a Ukrainian counterproposal in December went nowhere. A three-day ceasefire in May 2026 collapsed within days with each side blaming the other. Fighting continues across a 750-mile front; Russia holds about 20 percent of Ukraine. PolitiFact's only "Promise Broken" rating among 75 tracked promises is this one.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: the war is the most complex diplomatic problem in a generation, talks are continuing, and no one else has produced even a three-day pause.

3.3 Bring prices down on day one

  • The promise: August 2024: "Starting on Day One, we will end inflation and make America affordable again." "When I win, I will immediately bring prices down, starting on Day One." RE-VERIFY WORDING.
  • What happened: consumer prices rose 3.4 percent in the year to July 2026 and 4.2 percent in May, a three-year high. Food at home is up 2.7 percent over the year and energy 14.7 percent. Only 18 percent of Americans say they are better off financially than in January 2025; 57 percent say worse off (Financial Times/Focaldata, September 7, 2026). PolitiFact rates the grocery-price promise Stalled.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: core inflation is 2.5 percent, the energy spike is Iranian in origin, and presidents do not set global oil prices. The counter: the war that spiked oil was his decision, and "day one" was his phrase.

3.4 Tariffs will be paid by foreign countries

  • The promise: foreign nations, not Americans, would pay the tariffs.
  • What happened: the Kiel Institute's analysis of 25 million shipment records found Americans bore 96 percent of the cost. The Supreme Court ruled the emergency tariffs unlawful and $166 billion is being refunded to importers, not consumers. The Yale Budget Lab estimates the current tariffs cost the average household about $1,100 a year.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: tariffs produced trade agreements, some revenue, and reshoring pledges, and the price effect is modest at 0.7 percent. The counter: modest and paid by Americans is still not "paid by foreigners."

3.5 "We're not cutting Medicaid"

  • The promise: stated repeatedly in 2025 as the budget bill moved.
  • What happened: the Congressional Budget Office scored the law's Medicaid provisions at $793 billion less federal spending over ten years and 7.8 million more uninsured by 2034. Medicaid enrollment fell by nearly 5 million in a year as 80-hour monthly documentation requirements and financing limits took hold.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: benefits for the disabled, children, and the elderly were not reduced; the law targets able-bodied adults without dependents and pandemic-era enrollment growth. The counter: CBO does not score work requirements as fraud reduction; it scores them as coverage loss.

3.6 Bring health care costs "way down"

  • The promise: lower premiums and costs; "concepts of a plan" in 2024.
  • What happened: benchmark marketplace premiums rose nearly 26 percent year over year after enhanced premium tax credits expired, and the number of uninsured is rising.
  • Verdict: Broken.

3.7 Gasoline under $2 a gallon

  • The promise: gas "below $2."
  • What happened: the national average peaked around $4.50 in May 2026 and has stayed near $4, roughly 30 percent above Inauguration Day. Gasoline is up 24.6 percent over the year in the July CPI.
  • Verdict: Broken.

3.8 Mortgage rates near 3 percent

  • The promise: rates "back down to 3 percent, maybe even lower." RE-VERIFY WORDING.
  • What happened: rates are essentially unchanged since he took office; inflation and deficits keep upward pressure on them.
  • Verdict: Broken.

3.9 Cut the cost of a new home in half

  • The promise: halve housing costs by cutting regulation.
  • What happened: the income needed to afford a median home is about $120,000 against a median household income near $86,000, and the gap widened. He declined to sign the bipartisan ROAD to Housing Act in July 2026, which became law anyway, while holding it hostage to an unrelated voter-ID bill.
  • Verdict: Broken. Fair note: zoning and permitting are local, and no president controls most of the housing supply problem.

3.10 Bring back manufacturing

  • The promise: "America will be a manufacturing nation once again."
  • What happened: manufacturing employment fell by about 62,000 to 12.6 million since the inauguration. Tariffs raised input costs for the manufacturers they were meant to protect.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: reshoring takes years, announced investment commitments are large, and the Supreme Court's tariff ruling disrupted the strategy mid-stream.

3.11 Balance the budget and cut $2 trillion with DOGE

  • The promise: a balanced budget; Elon Musk's $2 trillion in cuts, later $1 trillion, later $150 billion.
  • What happened: DOGE closed July 4, 2026 having last claimed $215 billion in savings in January. The Government Accountability Office found in August 2026 that of $61 billion in claimed contract savings, nearly $35 billion was never cancelled or could not be verified; 108 "cut" leases were already being phased out; and DOGE ignored its own stated method for 96 percent of grant savings. The deficit rose. Debt is projected to reach 120 percent of GDP by 2036.
  • Verdict: Broken.

Their case: the tax cuts were the promise voters most wanted kept, and no Congress of either party has balanced a budget since 2001.

3.12 Release the Epstein files

  • The promise: 2024 campaign, release the files.
  • What happened: reversed in July 2025 and called the matter a hoax; signed a release law passed 427 to 1 only after his own party forced it; missed the deadline; released fewer than 10,000 documents while claiming hundreds of thousands; removed 16 files including a photo of himself, then restored them; released about half of six million relevant pages a month late. A Republican-led House committee subpoenaed the attorney general in March 2026.
  • Verdict: Broken. Full detail on the corruption page, B7.

Their case: the law permits withholding victim-identifying and privileged material, and more has been released under this administration than any prior one.

PART 4. PROMISES THAT FAILED IN COURT

4.1 End birthright citizenship

  • The promise: end it by executive order on day one.
  • What happened: the order was signed on day one, blocked by every court that heard it, including Republican appointees, and struck down 6 to 3 by the Supreme Court on June 30, 2026.
  • Verdict: Failed. He tried. The Constitution won.

PART 5. OPEN

5.1 Deport "the worst of the worst" first

  • The promise: criminals first.
  • What happened: the share of ICE arrests involving no criminal conviction and no pending charge rose from about 22 percent at the start of the term to about 43 percent in January 2026, and detainees with no record rose from 869 to more than 25,000. Serious criminals are still being removed. The priority claim is what the data contradicts.
  • Verdict: Open, trending Broken. Held open because the administration disputes the framing and because arrests of serious offenders did rise in absolute terms.

5.2 Growth "like nobody's ever grown before"

  • The promise: record economic growth.
  • What happened: growth slowed to a 1.5 percent annual rate in the second quarter of 2026, from about 2.75 percent in the prior administration's final year. One quarter is not a verdict.
  • Verdict: Open, trending Broken. RE-VERIFY the third-quarter estimate when released.

THE OTHER SIDE, TAKEN SERIOUSLY

  • The tallies are close to normal. PolitiFact's February 2026 count: 14 of 75 promises kept, 34 in the works, 23 stalled, 3 compromises, 1 broken. Most presidents keep a minority of promises in year two. What is unusual here is not the count but the size of the ones broken: war, prices, Medicaid, and the deficit are the four things voters said they were voting on.
  • Events intervened. The Iran war and the Supreme Court's tariff ruling wrecked the economic plan mid-course. True, and both were his choices.
  • Some "broken" promises were always impossible. Two-dollar gas needs thirty-dollar oil. Three percent mortgages need a recession. A reader can decide whether that makes the promise better or worse.
  • He kept the ones his base cared most about. Pardons, tax cuts, the border. That is why his approval among Republicans held for as long as it did. It is now slipping in multiple polls, and his economic approval sits at a record-low 26 percent.

Method and sources

Promises are quoted from speeches, interviews, and rally transcripts with the date. Outcomes come from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Congressional Budget Office, the Government Accountability Office, Customs and Border Protection, court opinions, and the administration's own statements, with named research institutions and news organizations where government data does not exist. PolitiFact's MAGA-Meter is cited as an independent cross-check. Corrections at purplepoliticalbreakdown.com/contact.